URBAN RENEWAL: New Alliance Research Shows U.S. Urban Economy Will Grow By Billions of Dollars If High School Dropout Rate is Reduced in America's Fifty Largest Cities

On November 18, the Alliance for Excellent Education released new research showing that the U.S. urban economy would grow significantly if the number of high school dropouts were cut in half in the nation's fifty largest cities.

Almost 600,000 high school students dropped out of the Class of 2008 in the nation's fifty largest cities and the surrounding areas. The Alliance's research shows that, if just half of those students had graduated, they would have earned a total of more than $4.1 billion in additional annual income. Los Angeles, at $575 million a year, would see the largest increase while Wichita, at $11.5 million would see the lowest.

In addition to the income gains, yearly state and local tax revenues in these cities would jump by a total of nearly $536 million. New York City would see the biggest increase with $92 million while Wichita, at $1.5 million, would see the lowest.

"In these lean economic times, local businesses and governments are looking for any way they can to improve their financial situation," said Bob Wise, president of the Alliance for Excellent Education and former governor of West Virginia. "These numbers demonstrate clearly that every consumer, business, and taxpayer benefit dramatically when we do what it takes to increase the number of students who graduate from high school with the skills they need to succeed in life. Indeed, the best economic stimulus is a high school diploma."

The study also found that an average of 65 percent of the additional high school graduates would continue their education after high school. This number ranged from a high of 84 percent in Honolulu to a low of 47 percent in Memphis.

The economic model used to estimate these economic benefits was developed by the Alliance for Excellent Education with the generous support of State Farm® and in partnership with Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. It is based on graduation rates calculated by Editorial Projects in Education and forecasts the economic benefits for U.S. Census-defined metropolitan statistical areas (MSA), each of which consists of a central urban area and the surrounding geographic area if it has strong social and economic ties to that city. The forty-five MSAs include the fifty largest cities in the country.¹ Five of these cities share a region with another.

"As a business leader I'm committed to a quality education for all children and to strengthening the vitality of our communities," said Edward B. Rust Jr., chairman and chief executive officer of State Farm®. "The new Alliance for Excellent Education model conclusively demonstrates that graduating from high school has significant positive economic and financial consequences for the business community and not just for the individual getting the education. Assuring that all of our students graduate from high school with the skills necessary to compete in a global economy is something all businesses-small and large-should see as a priority."

The model can project how reducing the number of dropouts in a city for a single high school class will result in tremendous economic benefits for the business community in that city and their state and local governments. The table below outlines the benefits that would result from reducing the dropout rate by 50 percent in the selected cities listed.

Specific numbers for each city in the study and more information on the economic model, including technical notes and frequently asked questions, are available at http://www.all4ed.org/publication_material/EconMSA.

¹ The forty-five MSAs in the study include: Albuquerque; Atlanta; Austin; Baltimore; Boston; Charlotte; Chicago; Cleveland; Colorado Springs; Columbus; Dallas/Ft. Worth/Arlington; Denver; Detroit; El Paso; Fresno; Honolulu; Houston; Indianapolis; Jacksonville; Kansas City; Las Vegas; Los Angeles/Long Beach; Louisville; Memphis; Miami; Milwaukee; Minneapolis; Nashville; New York City; Oklahoma City; Omaha; Philadelphia; Phoenix/Mesa; Portland; Sacramento; San Antonio; San Diego; San Francisco/Oakland; San Jose; Seattle; Tucson; Tulsa; Virginia Beach; Washington, D.C.; and Wichita.

WHEN CARS FLY?: Report Projects State Revenues to Recover in 2014 or 2015, Recessionary Effects on State Budgets to Last Until Late in Next Decade

In Back to the Future Part II, Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) and "Doc" Emmett Brown (Christopher Lloyd) use their time-traveling DeLorean to travel to 2015 in an effort to save McFly's kids from ruin. In the movie, 2015 is filled with flying cars and even a Chicago Cubs World Series victory. The movie was obviously fictional, but according to a preliminary review of The Fiscal Survey of States, released earlier this month, some state budget officers probably wish they could travel to 2015 because that is also the year that state revenues are projected to recover from the economic recession.

Although the national economy is showing signs of recovery, the picture is not nearly as rosy for states, according to the preliminary findings of the report, which is published jointly by the National Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO). In fact, even after accounting for spending cuts and tax increases, states are expecting new budget shortfalls totaling $14.5 billion for Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 and $21.9 billion for FY 2011-amounts that are expected to increase dramatically over the next several months.

States have already closed budget gaps of $72.7 billion in FY 2009 and $113.1 billion in FY 2010. However, with revenues down 11.7 percent and 16.6 percent in the first two quarters of 2009, respectively, and Medicaid spending up nearly 8 percent in FY 2009, states may not fully recover from the recession until late in the next decade, the report finds.

The report acknowledges the role of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), which provided about $246 billion to states and allowed them to offset planned budget cuts and tax increases. "If Congress had not made these funds available, state budget cuts and tax increases would have been much more draconian and devastating to state governments, their employees, and citizens," the report reads. However, it adds that ARRA funds will expire in December 2010, which forces states to plan for the "serious cliff in revenues" that they will face at that time.

"Previous downturns have proven that the worst budget years for a state are the two years after the national recession is declared over," the report reads. "States' recoveries from the current recession, however, may be prolonged with most economists projecting a slow and potentially jobless national recovery. ... The combination of falling revenues, which accompany high unemployment, and an explosion in Medicaid enrollment, which occurs very late in an economic downturn, explain why a recession's greatest impact on state budgets occurs one to two years after the downturn is over."

The report cites research projecting that state revenues will likely recover in 2014 or 2015. However, it adds that states will continue to struggle even when recovery begins because they will need to replenish retiree pension and health care trust funds, while paying for maintenance, technology, and infrastructure investments that were deferred during the crisis. Additionally, states will need to replenish contingency or rainy day funds.

"These are the worst numbers we've ever seen in the decades of putting together this report," said Scott D. Pattison, executive director of NASBO. "States have been forced to lay off and furlough employees, raise taxes, drain rainy day funds and sharply cut state spending in ways that impact every part of state government."

Read the report at http://tinyurl.com/ylmnhvp.

GRADUATION FOR ALL: House Education Committee Chairman Introduces Legislation Targeting Nation's Lowest-Performing High Schools

Last week, U.S. Representative George Miller (D-CA), chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee, introduced legislation that would provide $2 billion to improve the nation's lowest-performing middle and high schools. The bill, the Graduation for All Act, would target the nation's approximately two thousand "dropout factories," which have dropout rates above 40 percent, and the middle schools that feed into them.

"We are failing our students, failing our communities, and failing our nation if we allow this dropout crisis to continue," said Miller. "Ending this epidemic is a civil rights imperative, a moral issue, and an economic necessity. This bill says that it is no longer acceptable to let an at-risk student fall through the cracks and empowers schools to make the changes needed to help at-risk students thrive in school, earn a diploma, and go on to college or a good job."

The bill would provide school districts with clear guidance on turn-around strategies while also providing students at risk of dropping out with the tools they need to stay in school and succeed. For example, it would combine rigorous course work with academic and social support services to keep students engaged in school and help high schools implement a data system to identify students at risk of dropping out based on key indicators such as being frequently absent and failing core courses.

The Graduation for All Act would also promote college enrollment and career readiness by providing students with information about financial aid options and allowing high school students to earn up to two years of college credit through Early College High Schools and dual enrollment programs. It would also help students develop graduation and career plans.

"Transforming the nation's economy means transforming the nation's high schools," said Alliance for Excellent Education President Bob Wise. "By tackling the approximately 12 percent of high schools that account for over half of the nation's dropouts, the Graduation for All Act can provide a significant boost to the nation's graduation rate while helping millions of students earn the high school diploma that is so critical to their future success."

Joining Miller as cosponsors of the bill are Representatives Danny Davis (D-IL), Chaka Fattah (D-PA), Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Ruben Hinojosa (D-TX), Dale Kildee (D-MI), David Loebsack (D-IA), and Bobby Scott (D-VA).

More information on this legislation is available at http://edlabor.house.gov/newsroom/2009/11/house-democrats-introduce-legi-1.shtml.

HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE HOLDS HEARING ON IMPROVING READING AND COMPREHENSION SKILLS OF CHILDREN AND YOUNG ADULTS

On November 19, the House Education and Labor Subcommittee on Early Childhood, Elementary and Secondary Education held a hearing to examine current federal literacy initiatives and determine how to improve reading and comprehension skills of children from birth through high school. The hearing, "Improving the Literacy Skills of Children and Young Adults," featured practitioners, researchers, and representatives from business and the foundation world as witnesses.

"Only 30 percent of our fourth- and eighth-grade students tested at proficient or higher in reading on the most recent National Assessment of Educational Progress," said U.S. Representative Dale Kildee (D-MI), chairman of the Early Childhood, Elementary and Secondary Education Subcommittee. "Many of these struggling readers face a grim future without our help. Some are likely to become discouraged and drop out of school, while others will graduate unprepared for what lies ahead. For those who do graduate high school, about 40 percent will lack the literacy skills employers seek. This creates a serious dilemma in an economy where the twenty-five fastest-growing professions require greater than average literacy skills."

Kildee stressed the importance of early childhood education and called for strengthening existing programs that target Pre-K and elementary-age children, as well as adolescent readers. "Researchers have documented a fourth-grade reading slump for years, yet federal investment in reading programs for grades four through twelve remains minimal," he said. "In order to reverse the high school dropout crisis and prepare all students for postsecondary opportunities, we need to provide reading support far beyond the fourth grade."

In her testimony, Dorothy Strickland, professor emeritus at Rutgers University and member of the Alliance for Excellent Education's Intermediate and Adolescent Literacy advisory group, focused on the importance of literacy development during the early childhood years. She offered recommendations on how the federal government could improve policy and practice, such as requiring well-conceived standards for child outcomes and curriculum content, early literacy assessments that are age appropriate, and the employment of multiple means of collecting, synthesizing, and making use of information.

Andrés Henríquez, a program officer in the education division of Carnegie Corporation of New York and also a member of the Alliance's Intermediate and Adolescent Literacy advisory group, discussed Carnegie Corporation's Advancing Literacy initiative, which works to expand knowledge and practices in literacy beyond third grade.

"Our work has shown that strong literacy skills beyond grade three is the cornerstone for success in high school and for college readiness and beyond," Henríquez said. "Struggling readers represent a substantial proportion of students who are dropping out of our high schools. As fourth graders, their scores are among the best in the world. By eighth grade, their scores are much, much lower. By the time they get to tenth grade, U.S. students' scores are among the lowest in the world."

Henríquez added that early literacy instruction "does not inoculate students against struggle or failure later on." He offered several recommendations for how the federal government could ensure that high school graduates have the fundamental literacy skills needed to succeed, including more Title I funding for middle schools and high schools, fewer, clearer, and higher common standards, and a comprehensive focus on literacy instruction from pre-K through twelfth grade, with specific support for grades four through twelve. He called the LEARN Act, which was introduced earlier this month, a "critical first step" to meet recommendations at the federal level.

Mary Kay Doré, district student support services manager for the Summit School District in Frisco, Colorado, discussed the work her school district has done over the past three years to improve instructional practice and achieve positive gains in literacy and learning for students. Leo Gómez, professor of bilingual/bicultural education at the College of Education at the University of Texas-Pan American, focused on the unique challenges of English language learners. Sandra Meyers, an education associate in reading for the Delaware Department of Education, testified about how Early Reading First and Reading First helped her state improve the literacy skills of very young children who experience high levels of risk of literacy failure. Larry Berger, chief executive officer and cofounder of Wireless Generation, talked about technological breakthroughs in reading instruction and how public policy can accelerate them.

Complete witness testimony and an archived video of the hearing are available at http://edlabor.house.gov/hearings/2009/11/improving-the-literacy-skills.shtml.

SUCCESS AT EVERY STEP: New Report Profiles Twenty-Three Programs that Help Prepare Students for College and Career

A new report from the American Youth Policy Forum (AYPF) profiles twenty-three programs that primarily serve youth in middle school, high school, and postsecondary education and have been successful in preparing them for college and careers. The report, Success at Every Step: How 23 Programs Support Youth on the Path to College and Beyond, provides policymakers and practitioners with a short summary of the research findings for each program and a short description of why the programs work.

"Obtaining a high school diploma is no longer sufficient for young people who hope to land a job that pays a family-sustaining wage in today's economy," the report reads. "Without some type of education beyond high school (four-year college, two-year college, an industry certificate, or apprenticeship program), most young adults will find themselves out in the cold in the current labor market."

Even though additional education after high school is so important in today's economy, approximately one quarter of students do not even earn a high school diploma, the report points out. And among those who do, far too many leave high school without the critical skills and competencies to succeed in college or the workforce.

In conducting its analysis of the twenty-three programs included in the report, AYPF discovered several common themes that helped to contribute to the programs' effectiveness. It grouped these themes into two categories: Programmatic Elements of Success and Structural and System-Focused Elements of Success. According to the report, the Programmatic Elements of Success include factors "related to the content and interactions that characterize young people's experiences in the programs, such as rigor and academic support, relationships, college knowledge and access, relevance, youth-centered programs, and effective instruction."

Meanwhile, Structural and System-Focused Elements of Success include factors "related to the context and environment in which the programs operate, such as partnerships and cross-systems collaboration, strategic use of time, leadership and autonomy, and effective assessment and use of data."

Some of the programs included in the study were Career Academies, Communities in Schools, Dual Enrollment (Florida and New York City), Early College High Schools, First Things First, Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for Undergraduate Programs (GEAR UP), Knowledge is Power Program (KIPP), National Guard Youth ChalleNGe, Project Graduate Really Achieves Dreams (GRAD), Talent Development High School, and Upward Bound.

Based upon the evaluations of these and other programs included in the study, AYPF makes several policy recommendations on how to create an overall framework and expectation of college and career readiness for all students. For example, AYPF recommends that policymakers hold all education and youth service providers accountable for shared outcomes that lead to career success, civic engagement, and the capacity for lifelong learning and ensure that the full range of providers, such as afterschool, alternative education programs, employers, colleges, community-based organizations, and social services, are involved as partners in the college- and career-readiness system.

Additionally, AYPF recommends that policymakers ensure that youth who drop out of middle or high school have opportunities to reconnect to education programs that lead into college and career pathways and that data is collected from various systems over time to assess progress toward long-term outcomes and use the data to improve programs and services.

The complete report, which includes five-page summaries of the programs featured in the report, is available at http://www.aypf.org/publications/SuccessAtEveryStep.htm.